A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
