The Way The Strange Campaign Broke the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Formula.

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the current competition is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime also-rans rising in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still